Thought it’s difficult to delve too far into the advanced thinking behind
craps players, it is possible to take a look at some of the methods they use.
Each individual craps player has likely developed their own ‘system’
or approach to the game, and while you’ll find they are all flawed in a
strictly mathematical sense, variety is the spice of life. Read more to find out
what those people who appear to be thinking too hard at the craps table, are thinking
about.
The most common ‘advanced technique’ employed by craps players
is called hedging. Hedging is the process of covering one of your bets with
another, in effect canceling out a loss with a smaller win (and oops, yes, often
losing some of your winnings when you do get lucky). More than just a simple
back and forth though, hedging can quickly become a complicated mess of bets,
and difficult to keep your head straight around. Some bets on the craps table
can be taken down after a roll, if they haven’t won or lost. This affords
bettors to place a hedge temporarily, and take it down if they wish. With this
variable in the mix, the math is much too complicated.
To put things in perspective, lets look at one of the most common hedge bets
in the game. Placing an any craps bet down on the come-out roll to hedge a pass
line bets is a sight seen often in Vegas.
In effect, what’s happening when you hedge (intelligently) is you decrease
the volatility of your bankroll over the course of your time at the table. Without
hedging your bankroll will flow pretty much in line with the odds of the game,
which means if you play low risk bets your volatility will remain low, but as
soon as you take a larger risk (in hopes of larger reward) the volatility shoots
right up. Playing high risk bets with a proper hedging scheme lowers the volatility
on these bets to a reasonable level, letting you play comfortably within a preset
bankroll, and minimizing the chance of a quick loss of cash (a great deal of
money can make its way into that craps table, and most of it can disappear with
the arrival of the all too common seven).
Of course, there is no magic formula, and while hedging does decrease your
vulnerability to volatility traps, it also limits your ability to hit big wins.
Well, you hit them, but when you do your hedge bet loses, and so you’re
less ahead than you would be.
If you think you’ve found an effective hedging strategy in craps, you’re
not alone. But nary a mathematician will pay you notice, as the craps table
is as elegantly designed in its mathematics as any other game the house controls.
Craps is simply quicker to fool you, as the house defines the odds on each bet
more by the payoff each provides, more-so than the likelihood that you’ll
hit the bet.
